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Saturday, May 06, 2006

Brain Exploding...SOE and Sigil Unite

Sigil and SOE sitting in a tree? Vanguard part of Station Access? I'm still dumbfounded. But I've been thinking about the news and I'm going to try to analyze it from different angles. First, I think we need a little reality check:


Press Release

Brad Levels Up His Post Count on the Vanguard Forums (edited to change link to Silky Venom's Dev Tracker because a direct link wasn't working)

SOE did not buy Sigil. Nothing remotely related to that happened.

My understanding: Sigil purchases its own publishing rights from Microsoft, though they are still a "key Windows Development Partner," whatever that means (not much). Sigil enters into a co-publishing agreement with SOE. SOE provides "distribution, marketing, hosting and back-end support -- including billing and technical support." SOE tentatively agrees to add Vanguard to their Station Access subscription. That's the core of it.

From the Vanguard Fan Perspective

When I heard this news, the first thing I thought of was the absolute armageddon melt-down that must be occurring on the Vanguard forums. The posters there did not disappoint.

I can definitely understand why. Let's be honest - a large part of the Vanguard fandom is built on anti-SOE sentiment. Brad's Vision (TM) was perceived to be the antithesis of all that SOE represented (whether that's true or not). So when they hear that SOE is suddenly involved with their near holy game, it's a reaction akin to Johnny Damon signing with Yankees. And I completely empathize with that emotion. Like I said, I'm still in shock myself.

But you have to look past the emotions and look at the reality. SOE co-publishes other games. I recently mentioned that they were co-publishing Gods and Heroes. And they are a co-publisher on Toontown. That really doesn't affect the actual games, only the way they are delivered.

SOE has no right as co-publisher to dictate gameplay changes in Vanguard. Just as they would have no right to mess with balancing in Gods and Heroes or change the Cog spawn rate in Toontown, they can't mess with Brad's Vision (TM). And I guarantee that Brad made that clear, whether it was necessary or not. SOE development staffers are not going to work on Vanguard, they're going to work on their own games.

People who view SOE as villains who will somehow tamper with the Vanguard gameplay have to realize that the reality of the business world is not as dramatic as all that. This seems like a pretty clean and straightforward deal. If anything, Sigil has more control over their game then they did before. As sole owners of the publishing rights to Vanguard, I have to assume that they can drop SOE as a co-publisher at any time they wish. They could find a new co-publisher or publish the game themselves.

Sigil is the one with the leverage in this deal. SOE and Sigil are not merging anymore than SOE merged with Disney when it co-published Toontown.

As for the anti-SOE rhetoric, as I've stated, players are not going to notice anything SOE does in terms of the game itself. But is SOE evil? No, they make some horrible decisions and some great decisions. As with any large company, different divisions are going to have different personalities and work product. Have they done awful things in the past? Sure. Have they done great things in the past? Sure. Reality is never as black and white as people like to believe. It's much easier to paint someone or something with broad strokes than to try to see that they're probably more complex.

I will say that the some of the fervor on the boards relates to Station Exchange. And I completely agree with and understand that. This is just an example of how that bad decision negatively effected the public's perception of SOE, and justifiably so. For the record,
Brad says no Exchange type service for Vanguard ever. But as much as I didn't like SOE's Station Exchange decision, it has no real impact on the current news.

From Sigil's Perspective

This one's not too tricky. Things weren't working out with Microsoft. In the press release, Brad stated, "As the development process is ongoing and constantly shifting, it became clear that MGS and Sigil had varying visions and direction for the title's development." If you translate that from feel-good PR lingo, I would guess it was an absolute blood-bath.

And Sigil preferred to concentrate on the game itself rather than the technical and other subsidiary aspects of publishing it. That's probably a good decision for them.

And once they made that decision, the options were probably more limited than you think. How many companies have the expertise and wherewithal to handle a game like Vanguard? How many wanted to? There are really not a lot of options and I think SOE has the proven track record to handle this sort of thing (regardless of what you think of their game related decisions). And obviously, there were past connections between the companies which facilitated things.

As for the purported personal differences between people at SOE and Sigil, well, business comes first. People who let personal disagreements or feelings outweigh good business decisions are doing a disservice to their company.

All that said, Sigil had to have been (or should have been) aware of the public backlash this decision would had amongst the Vanguard faithful. They made the decision that the benefits of this arrangement outweighed that backlash. The fact that they went ahead with it anyway actually makes me think that they care enough about the game to do something difficult. How will this decision work out for them? Will they lose many potential subscribers? Will the break from Microsoft allow them to make a better game? Will SOE's services bring in more subscribers then they would have had? It's too tough to call.

From SOE's Perspective

This one is a bit trickier. I've been looking forward to Vanguard and hoping it will be an incredible game. But I had my doubts about some aspects of it. I won't get into specifics here but you can figure some of those doubts out from
this Friday Humor post, which is pretty funny. If I do say so myself.

And let me clearly say that I have never played the Vanguard Beta. But the things I have heard from people I trust make me think that those doubts were fairly accurate. Now you can say that there are always bad rumors and so on when a game is in Beta (and it is in Beta after all). But just going on my instinct and the content of those "rumors" I've tended to give them credence. And the issues with Microsoft (regardless of statements to the contrary) do not exactly reassure me.

If I had to wager now (based again on my admittedly quite limited knowledge) I would bet on the fact that Vanguard would have been unsuccessful or at least rather limited in its success.

So as the CEO of SOE I would be tempted to say, "Haha, good luck with that. Go find another publisher and we'll sit hear and eat some popcorn as your game completely implodes."

But now I'm the one letting my emotions cloud good business sense. Without knowing the details of the agreement, it seems like a relatively low risk proposition. If Vanguard is a success, SOE profits. Contrast this to the possibility that Vanguard was a success on its own, siphoned players from SOE games and not only made SOE zero money but cost them money. And what if it's a failure? Big deal. They're only co-publishing the game, not financing it. This might constitute an investment, sure, but it's a moderate one in the scheme of things.

SOE has cut their risks while gaining the possibility of reward. And that seems to make sense. Though I still might have passed, that's only my competitive nature talking.

From EQII's Perspective

This one's even trickier. Vanguard is a direct competitor. And from my personal experience, I hear more people in-game talking about leaving EQII to play Vanguard than I hear people saying they're leaving EQII to go play WoW.

So why would you want to help a competitor? Well, remember that people would have left to go play Vanguard whether or not SOE co-published it. The difference is that now they're still making money, but that's back to SOE's perspective.

The only possible difference in terms of EQII is that more people who are EQII subscribers might try it due to the Station Access subscription. And that might have a negative effect on populations which could have a negative effect on the game itself. But remember also that those people are still, in essence, EQII subscribers and are more likely to return to EQII to check out new content or expansions. Contrast this with the alternative - people canceling their EQII subscriptions and subscribing to Vanguard. So it may actually work out to their benefit. And then, of course, you may just have some Vanguard subscribers who go Station Access and try out EQII and love it. I don't see this as a huge number (due to anti-SOE sentiment amongst the Vanguard faithful), but, hey, you never know. You might also get people who weren't going to subscribe to either game to subscribe to Station Access for the possibility of playing both for one price. In the end, I see it as a net population benefit.

The important thing is that the EQII staff remains completely the same and will continue doing what they are doing. I have a feeling that the new Expansion and Adventure Pack will be excellent based more on the time and experience the designers have had with the game than anything specific in the press releases. Whether that translates into more players or retaining current players is tricky. But I don't think the player base will be affected negatively by this arrangement.

From Station Access Perspective

It's amazing the difference a few days makes.

Station Access has just gone from a much criticized price raise to possibly one of the greatest deals in gaming. The flexibility to play Vanguard and EQII for one monthly fee, even if you don't play the other SOE games, is probably well worth the price. Here's to hoping they don't raise the price further when Vanguard is added to the lineup.

And, hey, now that I know they can add games they are co-publishing to the Station Access lineup, I'm going to be even more on their case about adding Gods and Heroes.

From My Personal Perspective

First off, it's definitely surprising but also hilarious. Brad, Smed, SOE, Sigil. It's just too funny. SOE never ceases to entertain. Is SOE going to co-publish the Sigil Marvel Comics MMO and have a DC and Marvel MMO going simultaneously?

For all my doubts, I was going to buy Vanguard and I was hoping it would be a great game. And I still am. If I get to play it for no additional subscription fee, that makes me happy. I think it's a good business decision for SOE and I don't see it hurting EQII at all. And I honestly don't believe this will have any effect on Vanguard gameplay.

It's a new, wacky MMO world out there and I'm just along for the ride.


Blogger Anskiere said...

I can just see it now though... when people play Vanguard and realize it isn't all it was hyped up to be, they'll be all "yeah it sucks because Sony got their fingers into it"

I laughed when I heard the news, myself. ALl those vanbois who "hate SOE so much"...

11:28 AM  
Blogger E. Swartz said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

11:39 AM  
Blogger E. Swartz said...

Anyway, I got my butt in gear and posted on the subject. Read it, miserable fools!

The Sigil/SOE Debacle Part II

12:59 PM  
Anonymous mineforfish said...

Excellent and well reasoned post, especially given the glut of paranoia and theorycrafting surrounding how SoE will be the demise of the once great Vanguard (arguments usuall made by either by bringing up RMT, NGE, or some other TLA).

5:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Marvel/DC issue was brought up in guild chat night and led to absolute HILARITY.

I see it now, when I make my character, I will make a toon that has Green Lantern as a class and Mutant with Professor Xavier's powers as a race.

Nonetheless, I think it's going to be win/win/win for eq2 - people can try Vanguard while more easily maintaining EQ2, and keeping the relationships with players in those games more alive as well. At least, tahts my plan.

10:42 PM  
Blogger kfsone said...

As an admirer of the vision, I'm glad that Brad moved from MS to SoE. Microsoft haven't made it into the MMO market, but they've tried. Brad's vision makes for a conniseur's MMORPG. I.e. a niche game.

Why would Microsoft want to watch Brad recreate something on the nichier side of AC? Because I think someone was smart in Microsoft, smart enough to realize what the flop of AC2 mean't about the MMO knowledgebase in MS. They could watch Brad make an excellent flagship MMO, and then happily tell them what would "ruin" it. Like Moses telling the devil what would "make this place unlivable".

Brad has very verbosely listed all the "mistakes" SoE have made in transforming the game from Vision to product line flashship(as I think he's called it once).

I see it this way:

SoE has a lot of staff who liked the vision too, but have wound up having to make games that are more mass market. I bet there are plenty of dissapointed developers on your staff.

I don't think anyone at SoE sees SoH as a possible WoW contender, but now with things like Station Pass, this is a chance for SoE to house "The Vision" in a purer form than business reasons allowed in EQ.

Now they can offer cheese, wine and caviar.

11:02 PM  
Blogger Drew Falconeer said...

Nice post as usual, Aggro :)
Just two considerations:

1) Why, why in the world did SOE announced the price raise before announcing the anguard deal? I am pretty sure they lost lots of subscription that could have been saved if they anounced Vanguard's deal first and then the price raise.

2) It's a clear move from SOE. The opportunity to pre-bandage the lethal bleeding of EQ2 players to Vanguard (almost 60% of the people I play with keep saying they will go to VG as soon as it comes out)showed up and Smed took it. I could be wrong, but this move, that I am very happy with, could just have saved us a new server merger in the next winter.

Oh, third: SOE is a lot of different things. For example, sure they made a mess with SWG but the EQ2 peeps are so great, possibly the best Dev team I ever had to deal with. But sheeesh, the mob just won't listen... they love to riot

7:57 AM  
Anonymous Fergle F Fergleson said...

Great post.

I, for one, am in the camp of those that love EQ2, but now might actually give Vanguard a shot since it's not really going to cost me anything more.

11:24 AM  
Anonymous Kranky Kraut said...

I'm more amused than anything. There is a certain irony in all this. SGO were the Anti-SOE for many Vanbois and to them it must seem like Brad prostituted himself to the devil.

The most important question is: why would MGS part ways with Sigil? I don't believe the spin about MGS being too focused on the Xbox360 for a second. MMORPGs are cash-cows and you don't piss something like that in the wind unless you don't believe in its success.

12:16 PM  
Blogger Heartless_ said...

Ahhh but just having SOE in the back pocket means that in a year or two years Vanguard could be theres... could be changed.

Vanguard is already overbudgeted for its target audience. There is NOT that many hardcore gamers out there. What they had... was an average sized community. That may have worked, but a lot of players will be very stand off-ish with SOE attached.

SOE has proven it can fuck up a free meal if it wants too. All they need is a foot in the door...

3:21 PM  
Blogger Mercurie said...

I have to admit that the news surprised me, but then when I think about it, it isn't unexpected. I do have some mixed feelings about it. I haven't checked the official Vanguard forums, but at Vanguard at Ten Ton Hammer (which I write for, if Aggro can forgive me plugging myself...) the reaction seems to be best described as guarded. No one is like "Ohmigod! Brad has joined the Dark Side!" But at the same time no one is jumping for joy either. They seem to just have a "wait and see" attitude like myself.

7:38 PM  
Anonymous JC said...

I'm in the "queue" to be in the Vanguard beta, though I'm not in yet, so I don't have the NDA over my head yet. I wasn't planning on playing Vanguard at all, but since I have the oppotunity to "test" I'll give it a shot and see. If I like it, I guess I'll keep my Station Pass after all.

We shall see. . . .

1:15 AM  
Anonymous JC said...

I guess I may keep my Station Pass after all. I hadn't really planned on playing Vanguard, and I was gonna reduce to "normal" due tothe price increase, but if Vanguard's gonna be on the Station Pass, I just may keep that and try Vanguard as well.

In my case, at least, they may have just gained some revenue they wouldn't have otherwise.

1:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I really want SOE to add Toontown to Station Access. My daughter will be ready to play pretty soon.

8:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the marketing department was on the ball, and maybe in the loop, they would've held off the announcement of the price raise til after the Vanguard annoucement. That way they could've spun it as "and since we'll be bring you even more content than ever before, we hate to do it but we've got to raise the price $3", versus having everybody birth a cow first THEN announcing it.

Oh, wait, there is no cow level. (insert archaic gaming reference here /grins/)

The main reason I pay for Station Access is the fact that EQ2 only gives you only 4 or 6 charater slots, which is insane to begin with. (unless they've upped it recently? I've had Station Access since launch, so I am not sure if the 'base' # is now 4 or 6. The handbook that comes with the game says 4. Either way, it's still too few.).

I'm not too thrilled to pay more for other games I don't actually play, when all I want is more character slots.

SOE would actually put themselves in a more win situation if they had a wider variety of pricing choices, depending on which game you play. For example, there's a lot of people who don't want to pay double to get more EQ2 characters - because they have no interest in the other games - but would probably pay a SMALL amount extra to get more characters. So SOE loses out on getting more money out of those consumers who are unwilling to pay double more, but would give proper consideration to a lower amount.

9:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's not going to suck because "Sony got their fingers into it".

It just sucks, period. Maybe it won't in another year. Who knows? But right now, the game sucks. It needs work. Anyone who thinks this developement means the game is coming out soon, I'll take your money now, thanks.

And let's not forget all the healthly venom that McQuaid and Smedley threw at each other over the years.

McQuaid has the loyalty he does because he protested against the same guy he's back in bed with.

Now his forums read like WTF? this suxors the big one!11!1111

But you know what this REALLY means? This means that Vanguard will have to stand on it's own merit, not because it protested against the evil SOE. And that's the bottom line. But I don't see it happening anyday soon, so save your SOE All Access money for right now.

11:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This was posted on a EQ2 guild forum from a "long time" EQ1 player.

I wouldn't mind some feedback of this in light of the possible history here.

just one thing to say about another mmo that SOE co published about 7 years ago with a company that had exclusivity on the game play and content. the company was verant and the game was the original everquest, after the 3rd expansion i dont even think we saw verants name anywhere anymore, i see sigil ultimatly getting f%^ked without even the courtsey of a reach around from soe the same way verant got pounded from behind and heres why...

if vanguard gets included on station access that would mean the game would be hosted on soe's servers, that gives soe infinite leverage on what ultimatly happens within the game cause a pull out from soe ona disagreement would mean end of game. this is what happend in everquest only verant sold out to sony rather than have the game just end.

secondly we already know soe's server arrays cant handle the game there hosting now becuase they bottom ended the servers and expect premium results from inferior equipment, i would expect them to do even worse with a game that isnt theres.

lastly when sony does make a push for content authority they will most likely treat it the same way they do with all there games relase new content as quickly as possible without full testing or fixing bugs until it goes live or ever for that matter

i cant bilieve brad is falling for this shit a second time, i realized he wants his game to succeed but what he is doing is litteraly having his competition sell his game for him. personaly if i was selling games and my competitor wanted me to sell his for him i would make sure i pushed my game way ahead on priority and dump on his every chance i get.


If SOE do have a proven history of this maybe there is a point of concern as to how Sigil/Vanguard will continue to keep automony if it becomes mitigated by hardware constraints.

4:33 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can't believe Brad is not only falling for it but jumps all over his faithful fanbase on the Vanguard forums and tells them he does not want to hear anyone bad mouth his great best buddy Smedley. and he says it with a very obvious vehemence that is WARNING everyone not to say anything bad anymore aout smed or SOE. That pretty much knocked me over again after the initial shock of finding out SOE has now got its grubby paws on the game.

1:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh yeah- some people who have been officially sanctioned sites by Sigil and all for Vanguard now saying they are just seeing people they know as being "guarded" means- we was soooo in the know and part of the newwwww 3rd gen MMORPG from the ground floor!!- but now we have to just eat it and say we like this SOE decision to kiss butt to Sigil or we ain't going to be a sanctioned site anymore and therefor not distinguished as being there before day one of game release!!

Get a spine.

3:29 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I notice Heartless posted a comment. I also noticed an interesting comment from a beta tester on his blog found here: http://hgamer.blogspot.com/2006/02/vanguard-preview-ign.html

While it's not a NDA-breaker per se, someone apparently felt the need to confide in Heartless about some pretty 'heartless' people they encountered in that beta.

Interesting read about one person's take on the inside world.

Kinda reminds me of something. Oh yeah, it was the SOE boards during the revamp when the fanbois went on a rampage defending the new changes. They did a GREAT job of clearing the place of customers for sure. I hope Vanguard isn't going through the same thing, but to read this, it sure sounds familiar!

When are these companies ever going to learn that their best defenders are their worst enemies?

Lesson #1: Never let the FANS speak for YOU, lest you find yourself left with fanatics and no customers.

4:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think that it's Sigil that has the rights to the Marvel MMO... it's Microsoft.

Since I doubt Sigil had started developement... its more likely Microsoft will hand the task to someone else

4:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...




10:23 AM  
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